Russia’s Oreshnik Missile Fuels NATO Invasion Fears
Putin Closes Airspace Over Kapustin Yar Test Site
Russian President Vladimir Putin has restricted airspace over the Kapustin Yar missile test site in southern Russia’s Astrakhan region from 4 to 8 August 2025, raising concerns about potential tests of the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile. This “doomsday” weapon, previously launched in a test against Ukraine’s Dnipro in November 2024 without a live warhead, is claimed by Russia to be unstoppable by Western and Ukrainian defenses.
Former Speechwriter Predicts Baltic Invasion
The airspace closure aligns with warnings from Putin’s former speechwriter, Abbas Gallyamov, who described a Russian invasion of NATO’s Baltic states—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—as “realistic.” Gallyamov suggested Putin might escalate tensions to offset setbacks in Ukraine, framing it as part of a broader geopolitical deal with the West to avoid perceived defeat.
Oreshnik Missile: A ‘Game-Changing’ Threat
Russian state media claims the Oreshnik, capable of reaching temperatures of 4,000°C, could incinerate targets and strike London in eight minutes from Belarus or 20 minutes from Kapustin Yar. Putin announced on 1 August 2025 that serial production of the Oreshnik system has begun, with deliveries to the Russian military and plans to supply Belarus later this year.
Russia Scraps Missile Deployment Moratorium
On 4 August 2025, Russia’s foreign ministry declared it would abandon a moratorium on deploying medium- and short-range missiles, potentially linked to Oreshnik’s development. The ministry stated that Russia no longer feels bound by previous self-imposed restrictions, signaling a shift in its strategic posture.
Medvedev Warns of ‘New Reality’ for Adversaries
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev emphasized that the Oreshnik missile creates a “new reality” that Russia’s opponents must confront. He hinted at further escalatory steps, amplifying concerns about Moscow’s intentions amid ongoing global tensions.
Trump Faces Pressure as Airspace Ban Coincides with Ukraine Deadline
The airspace restriction, enforced via a NOTAM (Notice to Airmen), will remain until 8 August 2025, coinciding with a critical deadline for U.S. President Donald Trump’s Ukraine ceasefire initiatives. Gallyamov warned that a Russian move against the Baltics could undermine Trump’s claims of distancing himself from the Ukraine conflict, framing any new aggression as a personal failure for the U.S. leader.
Potential for Broader Missile Tests
While the airspace closure may signal an Oreshnik launch, tests of other missiles at Kapustin Yar are also possible, as seen in a similar closure in May 2025 without an Oreshnik test. The site is a hub for Russia’s advanced missile development, adding to uncertainties about the current closure’s purpose.
