Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is preparing to resist any attempt to remove him from the Labour leadership, according to sources close to him, as discontent grows within the parliamentary party just months after their election victory.
Mounting Concerns
Those loyal to the prime minister worry that a challenge could materialize soon, potentially in the weeks following the upcoming Budget. Critics characterize the response from Downing Street as defensive, with one government source describing it as “full bunker mode” that risks making matters worse.
Several cabinet members have emerged as potential alternative leaders in discussions among Labour MPs. Health Secretary Wes Streeting and Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood feature prominently in these conversations, alongside Energy Secretary Ed Miliband and backbench figures including former Transport Secretary Louise Haigh.
Determination to Stay
A minister close to Starmer insisted the prime minister would not step aside voluntarily, contrasting the current situation with 2021 when Labour’s by-election loss in Hartlepool prompted Starmer to briefly consider resignation.
“He is one of only two people alive who have won a general election for Labour,” the minister said. “It’d be madness to run against him after 17 months.”
The Numbers Problem
Opinion polling presents a stark picture. Recent surveys suggest Starmer may be among the most unpopular British prime ministers in modern polling history, with Labour’s support hovering around just one-fifth of voters in recent months.
However, ousting a sitting Labour leader requires significant parliamentary support. Under party rules, any challenger would need nominations from 20% of Labour MPs—currently 81 members given the party’s Commons representation.
Timeline Debates
Many within Labour have long anticipated a critical moment following devolved elections in Scotland and Wales, plus English local elections scheduled for May. Labour expects poor results, but some party members question whether waiting that long is viable.
“It’s all very well to say wait for the locals, but that’s my activist base I’m sending into the gunfire,” one senior Labour MP said. “I can’t lose all my councillors.”
Another Labour source suggested: “The list of reasons for people to move after the Budget are growing by the day.”
Streeting Denies Ambition
Speculation about Health Secretary Wes Streeting’s leadership ambitions has raised particular concern among Starmer loyalists. A spokesman for Streeting categorically denied the claims, stating his focus remains on reducing NHS waiting lists, recruiting additional GPs, and reforming the health service.
One government source complained that Downing Street was “turning on their most loyal cabinet members for absolutely no reason,” pointing to what they described as a pattern of briefing against senior figures including Angela Rayner, Lisa Nandy, and Lucy Powell.
Outside Perspective
Labour peer Maurice Glasman told the BBC he saw no viable challenger, dismissing the leadership speculation as “just noise.” While praising Home Secretary Mahmood’s quality, he emphasized his full support for the prime minister.
The Case for Stability
Starmer’s supporters warn that a leadership contest would replicate the chaos that plagued the Conservative government’s final years and install a leader without an electoral mandate. They also argue it could unsettle financial markets and damage the relationship the prime minister has built with President Trump.
One minister described the depth of public hostility: “He is hated out there. It is worse than it got under Corbyn. I don’t see how this is sustainable until May.”
A cabinet minister supporting Starmer characterized the internal divide: “There are those who see it as a choice between this Labour government and perfection. But the choice isn’t between us and perfection, it’s between us and Reform.”
The Reform Factor
The rise of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party has become a central preoccupation for Downing Street. Starmer views the contest with Reform as generation-defining and believes he has the capability to defeat Farage.
The prospect of losing to Reform in a future general election concerns the prime minister far more than losses to the Conservatives. Yet an increasing number of his colleagues question whether he can deliver that victory.
“We are not like the Tories,” one newly elected Labour MP said. “We’re not going to change leader more than once in a parliament.”
