Reform UK Projected to Become Largest Party in Hung Parliament – YouGov Analysis.

New polling data reveals dramatic shift in UK political landscape ahead of Labour conference

A groundbreaking YouGov MRP poll has revealed that Reform UK would emerge as the largest party in a hung parliament if a general election were held today, marking a dramatic transformation in British politics just one year after Labour’s historic landslide victory.

According to the comprehensive analysis of voting intentions, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK would secure 271 seats – a massive leap from their current five constituencies. This would leave them as the dominant force in Westminster, though falling short of the 326 seats needed for an outright majority.

Labour Faces Catastrophic Losses

Labour would suffer devastating losses, falling from their current commanding majority to just 178 seats, representing one of the most dramatic political reversals in modern British history. The party would retain largest party status only in London and jointly in the North West.

Among the high-profile casualties would be seven current cabinet ministers, including Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner and Home Secretary Yvette Cooper. Other senior figures facing defeat include Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson, Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds, Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy, Defence Secretary John Healey, and Cabinet Office Minister Pat McFadden.

Conservative Collapse Continues

The Conservatives would face an even more severe decline, dropping to a mere 46 seats and falling to fourth place behind the Liberal Democrats. This represents a further deterioration from their already historically poor 2024 performance.

However, some senior Conservative figures would survive the electoral carnage, with party leader Kemi Badenoch, Robert Jenrick, and former PM Rishi Sunak retaining their seats. Former leadership challenger James Cleverly would lose his Braintree constituency to Reform.

Other Party Performances

The Liberal Democrats would improve on their record 2024 performance, reaching 81 seats, primarily through gains from the Conservatives. In Scotland, the SNP would stage a remarkable recovery, winning 38 constituencies and reclaiming their status as Scotland’s largest party.

The Greens and Plaid Cymru would also advance, each securing seven seats according to the projections.

Fragmented Electoral Landscape

The poll reveals a dramatically fragmented political landscape, with the two traditional main parties – Labour and the Conservatives – winning just 41% of the vote combined, down from 59% in 2024.

Reform UK’s projected 26% vote share would translate into approximately 42% of seats, while Labour’s 23% would yield just 27% of constituencies. This efficiency gap highlights the volatility of the current electoral system under such fragmented conditions.

Implications for Governance

The poll suggests a hung parliament outcome in around 97% of model simulations, with Reform UK as the largest party in 99% of scenarios. No realistic two-party coalition would achieve the 326-seat majority needed to govern effectively.

A Reform-Conservative partnership would only reach 317 seats in the central projection, requiring support from smaller parties – similar to Theresa May’s arrangement with the DUP in 2017.

Timing and Context

This polling data emerges as Labour prepares for their annual conference in Liverpool, which began on Sunday, September 28, 2025. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer faces mounting challenges, including criticism over immigration policy, taxation decisions affecting farmers, and divisions within the party over foreign policy issues.

The dramatic shift in public opinion appears driven largely by Brexit voters, with 51% of 2016 Leave supporters now backing Reform UK. Of Reform’s projected 266 seat gains, only ten came from constituencies that voted Remain in 2016.

Volatile Political Environment

The analysis reveals an increasingly volatile electoral landscape, with constituencies being won on an average of just 35% of the vote and majorities averaging only 10 percentage points. This compares to 40% and 16 points respectively in 2024, and over 50% with 26-point majorities in 2019.

The projected lowest winning vote share is just 24% for Reform UK in Aylesbury, with 143 constituencies showing winners with less than 30% of the vote.

This unprecedented fragmentation suggests British politics has entered a new era of uncertainty, with traditional party loyalties breaking down and electoral outcomes becoming increasingly unpredictable.