A seismic political earthquake has rocked British politics as Labour has plummeted to a catastrophic 17% in the latest YouGov poll—barely clinging to third place and trailing Reform UK by a staggering 10 points.
The bombshell survey reveals Reform UK commanding 27% support, positioning Nigel Farage’s party as the dominant force in British politics. The Conservatives match Labour at a dismal 17%, while the Liberal Democrats hover just behind at 15%. Most remarkably, the Green Party nips at Labour’s heels with 16%—just one point behind Sir Keir Starmer’s beleaguered government.
Electoral Calculus projections paint a stunning picture: if these numbers held at a general election, Reform would storm into Downing Street with a 60-seat majority and 355 MPs. In an unprecedented twist, the Liberal Democrats—not Labour—would form the official opposition with 72 seats.
Labour would limp into third place with a mere 68 MPs, while the Conservatives would crater to sixth position with only 31 seats. Tory leader Kemi Badenoch would retain her Essex constituency but would find herself leading a parliamentary group smaller than the Green Party and SNP.

The poll exposes the complete disintegration of Labour’s 2024 winning coalition: 18% of their voters have defected to the Greens, 13% to the Liberal Democrats, and 11% to Reform UK.
The timing couldn’t be worse for Labour. These devastating numbers arrive before Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivers her second Budget, which is widely expected to include massive tax increases. Reports surfaced last week suggesting Reeves may abandon her manifesto pledge not to raise income tax—a move that has reportedly sparked panic among Cabinet ministers.
Reform UK chairman Dr. David Bull seized on the results: “The old two-party system is dead. There is a seismic shift happening out there. Reform UK is offering a real alternative for Britain’s future.”
With Labour’s support evaporating and Reform’s momentum building, British politics appears to be experiencing its most dramatic realignment in generations.




