Despite falling crime rates, perception of danger persists among capital’s elite
London is grappling with a stark disconnect between crime statistics and public perception, as politicians and wealthy residents claim the capital has become unsafe despite evidence showing many offences are actually declining.
Donald Trump reignited the debate during his UK state visit, declaring crime in London “through the roof” and attacking Mayor Sadiq Khan’s record. The sentiment has gained traction, with some blaming perceived lawlessness – alongside rising taxes – for driving the super-rich from Britain.
High-profile incidents have fueled these fears. Ex-Formula One driver Jenson Button had £250,000 worth of valuables stolen at King’s Cross, while socialite Shafira Huang lost over £10 million in jewellery during a Primrose Hill burglary. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has warned people against wearing jewellery in the West End after 9pm.
Yet the reality tells a more nuanced story. While recorded crime in Metropolitan Police areas has risen 31% over the past decade, with violent crime up 40%, recent trends show improvement. Violent crime fell 6% in the year ending March, and London’s murder rate remains lower than New York, Paris, Berlin, Brussels and Madrid.
Most dramatically, luxury theft has plummeted. Watch thefts valued over £3,000 dropped from 2,054 in 2023 to just 783 in 2024 – a 62% reduction. Designer handbag thefts fell from 2,324 to 721, while jewellery theft decreased from 4,977 to 1,863.
The improvements follow a Metropolitan Police crackdown using plainclothes officers to bait thieves in crime hotspots. This summer, three men were jailed for a series of Mayfair watch robberies after detectives tracked them through CCTV.
However, mobile phone theft continues rising, more than doubling from 55,820 incidents in 2020 to 117,211 last year. Thieves using ebikes and mopeds make rapid getaways, selling phones through sophisticated international supply chains.
Security experts say the “broken windows” theory explains why perception lags reality – visible minor crimes create a broader sense of disorder. A YouGov survey found 51% of adults believe violent crime is increasing, versus just 7% who think it’s falling.
The fear is tangible among London’s wealthiest. Mayfair store managers now advise clients not to wear luxury watches on the street. Applications for bodyguard licenses surged 33% in 2024, reaching 4,650, as demand for “close protection” services grows.
Matthew Beer of King Safety and Security notes that families once employing a single bodyguard now seek protection for multiple members. “Younger clients engaged on social media have a clearer understanding,” he said. “You don’t need to be ultra-high net worth to be a target.”
Despite the anxieties, most wealthy residents aren’t fleeing. “They still want to reside in London because it is a great city,” said Stephen Helliwell of security consultants Aldermans.
The Metropolitan Police emphasizes its commitment, stating personal robberies have fallen 12% since April through proactive patrols in hotspots. But bridging the gap between statistical reality and public perception remains the challenge.
