Negotiations between Pakistan and Afghanistan have failed after four days of intense discussions in Istanbul, with both sides blaming each other for the breakdown in talks aimed at preventing a wider conflict.
Pakistan’s Information Minister Attaullah Tarar announced the failure early Tuesday, accusing the Afghan delegation of using “deflection and ruses” to avoid addressing Islamabad’s core demand: that Kabul dismantle the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), an armed group operating from Afghan territory.
The talks, mediated by Qatar and Turkey, followed a temporary ceasefire agreed in Doha on October 19 after a week of deadly fighting. Pakistani officials said Monday’s session lasted nearly 18 hours, but the Afghan side repeatedly changed positions. Afghanistan countered by accusing Pakistan’s delegation of lacking coordination and failing to present clear arguments.
The standoff centers on the TTP, which has waged attacks against Pakistan since 2007. While independent from Afghanistan’s Taliban government, the groups share ideological ties. Islamabad accuses Kabul of providing sanctuary to the TTP and other militant organizations—charges Afghanistan denies. The Afghan Taliban insist the TTP is Pakistan’s domestic problem, with Defense Minister Mullah Yaqoob arguing that “terrorism” is often used as a political label.
Recent cross-border attacks have killed dozens, including more than two dozen Pakistani soldiers. Violence in Pakistan surged in 2024 with over 2,500 casualties, and 2025 is on track to be even deadlier. Data shows the TTP conducted at least 600 attacks in the past year, with activity already exceeding 2024 levels.
Analysts warn that deep mutual distrust and conflicting priorities make any settlement difficult. “The core issue is ideological alignment,” said security analyst Baqir Sajjad Syed, noting the Afghan Taliban’s dependence on TTP for internal security complicates any break with the group.
Despite Pakistan’s military superiority, experts caution against escalation. Security analyst Sami Yousafzai warned that military action could increase civilian casualties and boost Taliban popularity, potentially leading to a jihad declaration that would embolden the TTP further.
US President Donald Trump has pledged to “solve the Afghanistan-Pakistan crisis very quickly,” though mediators from Qatar and Turkey are expected to make last-ditch efforts to revive dialogue. Economic incentives, including aid for ceasefire compliance, may offer one path forward.
However, with Pakistan’s defense minister threatening “open war” and targeted strikes possible, the region faces its most dangerous moment in years as diplomatic options appear exhausted.
