Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has made an unusual choice: with a commanding Commons majority and challenges ranging from bond market volatility to party management, he’s identified a five-MP party as his primary opponent.
That party is Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage.
The Strategy Under Scrutiny
Throughout Labour’s recent conference week in Liverpool, Sir Keir repeatedly targeted Reform UK while dismissing the Conservatives as “dead” and largely ignoring the Liberal Democrats and Greens. He’s framed this as an existential contest for Britain’s identity.
“We have not had a proposition like Reform in this country ever before,” Starmer said over the weekend. “This is a different fight. It is a fight about who we are as a country, it goes to the soul of our future.”
The rhetoric echoes Joe Biden’s 2020 “battle for the soul of the nation” messaging against Donald Trump. But within Labour’s ranks, doubts are growing about whether this approach helps or hinders the party’s prospects.
The Internal Debate
Party insiders are divided. One northern backbench MP criticized Downing Street advisers for being out of touch with working-class voters concerned about immigration, calling them “frothy coffee drinking liberal lefties” who “don’t get it.”
Other Labour figures worry that declaring the Conservatives finished could backfire spectacularly. A senior minister explained that a strong Conservative vote share is actually beneficial because it splits the right-wing vote.
“The Tories being dead doesn’t help us, it just pushes people to Reform,” the minister said. “Both Tory and Labour voters are shifting to Reform. We need the right vote to split.”
John Denham, who served as a minister under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, questioned the wisdom of elevating Reform to primary opponent status.
“The idea that the only thing we think we can offer in four years time is ‘well, at least we’re not Reform’… surely to God we can do something with the huge majority we’ve got,” he said.
What the Numbers Show
Recent YouGov polling reveals a more complex picture than a simple Labour-Reform battleground. Just over half of Labour’s 2024 voters remain loyal, but the defections tell an interesting story:
12% have moved to Reform
13% have shifted to the Liberal Democrats
12% have gone to the Greens
4% have switched to the Conservatives
The data suggests Labour is hemorrhaging more support to the left than to the right.
The Case for Starmer’s Approach
Not everyone thinks the strategy is misguided. Tom Lubbock from JL Partners polling believes it’s “extremely smart politics” that could consolidate Labour’s wavering voters.
“If you force that choice and say it’s a choice between Keir Starmer and Nigel Farage, a lot of undecided voters will come back into the Labour boat,” Lubbock argued.
Number 10 insiders insist the prime minister genuinely believes Britain stands at a crossroads and that confronting Reform is a moral imperative, not just political calculation.
Reform’s Reaction
Reform UK is delighted with the attention. During Prime Minister’s Questions, when Starmer ridicules them, Farage and MPs like Richard Tice and Lee Anderson respond with theatrical laughter, interpreting the attacks as validation.
Gawain Towler, a former Farage press adviser, was blunt about Reform’s view: “We love it. We absolutely love it! It’s so preposterous.”
The Historical Warning
Past governments have grappled with how to handle Farage-led insurgent parties. Simon Lewis, former communications director for Gordon Brown, cautioned against appearing too concerned.
“The risk is that you are seen to be taking your opponent too seriously,” Lewis said. “You do have to be very careful.”
With four years until the next election, Labour faces a fundamental question: Does naming and confronting Reform UK neutralize the threat, or does it risk creating the very opponent capable of defeating them?
